PS 26081SOFTWAREMiscellaneousFast Prototype (36h)

Hybrid AINWP Multi-Model Forecast Blending System

Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES)National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF)
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30-Second Plain English Summary

NCMRWF and IMD run multiple distinct Numerical Weather Prediction models (NCUM Global, NCUM Regional, GFS, WRF, ECMWF) alongside emerging pure-AI atmospheric models (GraphCast, Pangu-Weather, FourCastNet), each with differing strengths across lead times and geographical regions. Build a Hybrid AI-NWP Multi-Model Forecast Blending System that dynamically computes optimal spatial-temporal blending weights using Bayesian Model Averaging and deep neural meta-learners to generate a single unified consensus forecast.

5-Dimension Strategic ScorecardOverall Score: 3.9 / 5.0
Innovation
4 / 5
36h Feasibility
4.5 / 5
Uniqueness
3.5 / 5
Jury Appeal
3.8 / 5
Tech Depth
3.8 / 5
Recommended System Architecture Pipeline
Multi-Model NWP (NCUM/GFS) + AI Models (GraphCast) -> Spatial Grid Regridder -> Bayesian Model Averaging & Meta-Learner -> Unified Consensus Grid -> NCMRWF Forecaster Hub
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Official Government Problem Description
• Problem Statement Different forecasting systems perform differently depending on region, season, lead time and weather situation. Physical NWP models, ensemble forecasts and AI/ML weather models may each have strengths under different conditions. Therefore, there is a need for an intelligent blending system that can dynamically combine multiple forecasts. The challenge is to develop a hybrid AI"“NWP blending framework that assigns adaptive weights to different forecast sources based on historical skill, forecast lead time, region, season and weather regime. The final product should provide an optimized forecast for rainfall, temperature, wind and extreme weather indicators. Expected Outcome - Description • Dynamically blended forecast - Best-combined forecast from multiple model sources • Model weight maps - Indication of which model is more reliable for each region/lead time • Improved forecast skill - Better performance than individual models • Extreme weather guidance - Improved signals for heavy rainfall, heat wave and high-wind events • Operational workflow - Automated script/dashboard for routine forecast blending
AI & PPT Citation Format

Smart India Hackathon 2026 Problem Statement PS-26081: "Hybrid AINWP Multi-Model Forecast Blending System", Ministry: Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES). Strategy & Architecture via SIH ONE (https://sihone.pages.dev/ps/26081)

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